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Retorts

Global Warming Drawbacks

I do not wish to enter into an extended correspondence with Vincent Gray, however might I be permitted to make some comments on his letter [Retorts, Dec/Jan]?

I doubt that New Zealand would benefit from global warming. I would like to suggest that if global warming were to lead to major economic upheaval in the northern hemisphere, we would not be isolated from those problems. Certainly if the ice-caps were to become unstable and begin to break up, our major cities would be at risk. Even the shifting of climatic belts would cause disruption to horticulturalists, orchardists and others. It seems a risky assertion to claim that New Zealand would surely benefit from a temperature rise.

In my letter I gave reference to New Scientist articles as this journal is readily accessible throughout New Zealand, and I did not attempt to obtain the original papers. Purists who do not trust the popular press will find reference to those original papers in the quoted New Scientist articles. The Greenpeace data is due to the German re-insurance organisation Munich Re, which can hardly be dismissed as an advocacy group.

As the IPCC seems to be acceptable to Dr Gray as a source of information, those interested might like to read Global Warming, the Complete Briefing by Sir John Houghton, published in 1994 by Lion Press. In this book, Sir John, who is chairman of the Scientific Committee of the IPCC, comes to quite different conclusions to those advanced by Dr Gray. The IPCC's latest report is to be published in April, but it is reviewed in New Scientist 9 Dec 1995. The report is said to contain the statement "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate".

Finally Dr Gray seems to be confused as to whether the global temperature is rising or not. The fact is that, globally, the hottest eight years since records began 140 years ago have been since 1980. It seems likely that 1995 will prove to be the hottest year yet. There may be other factors at work, but I feel that humankind would be unwise to adopt a "she'll be right" attitude. Just as with smoking, there comes a point where sensible people give it up.

Dai Redshaw, Dunedin