Retorts

Polling Problems

I enjoyed Miles Maxted's article [Polls, Oct], but I think he overlooked another major source of error with regard to political opinion polling -- people's inconsistency.

"I'll be voting National this time" often means "I'm hacked off with what Labour's doing" at time X. Come election day and they'll dutifully endorse the Labour candidate.

This is why the Opposition often does well in by-elections, especially mid-term. People are sending threatening messages while knowing that the real balance of power in the Beehive won't be affected.

Furthermore, do opinion polls mean anything (even assuming 100% correct sampling) when you consider the first-past-the-post electorate system? Even if a poll in Auckland shows 99.9% Labour support, Southland will always return a National candidate!

B. Vlaardingerbroek, Papua New Guinea