Under The Microscope

THE GREENHOUSE TRAP, by John Daly; Bantam Books 1990; 192pp; $21.95

GLOBAL WARMING, THE GREENPEACE REPORT, ed by Jeremy Leggett; Oxford University Press 1990; 565pp; $27.95

These books about global warming present contrasting views based on different premises. Daly's book reads like a one-man crusade to discredit and debunk much of the current greenhouse effect theory. The collectively authored Greenpeace volume is more measured in its style and seems aimed to intensify public concern over the issue.

Daly's book is the more readable of the two, making good use of diagrams, tables and quotes. In the course of making his arguments about why the greenhouse effect may be a fraud, he offers a sound explanation of much of the important science in global climate research. The book should be of interest to the layperson both as a relatively easy introduction to the workings of our climate and because of its controversial nature. Daly's vehemently anti-greenhouse opinions are never far from the surface. Although the arguments he puts forward are interesting and plausible, readers with no background knowledge of modern climate research could mistakenly believe Daly's views are more representative of climate scientists than they really are.

The Greenpeace volume is a compilation of papers by noted international authorities that focus more on impacts than the mechanics of the atmosphere. As such, it does not have the overall cohesion of Daly's book, nor the easy introduction to climate science. However, it does possess an authoritative air and a rather elegant style of prose that similar collections often lack. If the reader can accept the book's premise that the greenhouse effect is inevitable, the discussion of impacts is a very interesting exercise in future gazing, ranging from greenhouse economics and policy making to changing electricity generation options.

The most striking contrast between the two is their divergent underlying principles. Daly articulates many issues that have not been well discussed in the media, and most laypeople reading his book will probably be quite surprised that doubt about the greenhouse warming theory exists at all. Given the many books on the market warning of global catastrophe, this is a refreshing change. However, much of the scientific scepticism that Daly refers to is born out of a desire by many atmospheric scientists for a more balanced approach to greenhouse research. Daly's book does little to promote this balance, virtually denying any possibility that greenhouse warming could occur.

Conversely, the Greenpeace report paints a fascinating and not altogether alarming picture of a world where the greenhouse effect is at least as severe as any of the currently accepted international estimates. While this makes for a thought provoking read it does not allow for the possibility that its central premise could turn out to be wrong. In this sense it will not disappoint ardent environmentalists, but a more balanced viewpoint might have been of greater value to the general reader.

Both of these books are well written, informative and useful for specific insight into a complex subject. I would recommend either on its own as long as the reader is aware of the rather biased viewpoints each presents. Read together they represent an interesting symbiotic balance of ideas.

(Tony Trewinnard, climate consultant)