GIGO

What is it that makes us so keen to pronounce doom and gloom at the drop of a hat? Whether it's alleged economic recessions or environmental end-of-the-world scenarios, we seem very ready to read the worst in a situation.

I was startled by the reaction to the recent grounding and sinking of the Korean trawler on the Breakseas. Reports had us awash in oil and dead and distressed wildlife, New Zealand's tourist numbers were predicted to plummet forthwith and words like "disaster" and "catastrophe" were the order of the day. People were standing by ready to evacuate birds and seals caught up in the slick, with treatment procedures ready and waiting. They waited in vain. The last report I saw noted that no actual animals had been found to be affected by the 300 tonnes or so of oil; two birds found dead early on had apparently died of other causes.

I was delighted that such worthy efforts were unneeded -- oil slicks are appalling and an oil-saturated bird is a truly distressing sight. What's more it was pleasing to see how quick people were to swing into action -- not just the Boy Scouts recognise the value of being prepared. However, I was concerned that, once again, a certain amount of hysteria was generated over what was, if the truth be admitted, a rather minor event.

Many incidents of much greater concern -- the Exxon Valdez spill, the burning of the Gulf oil fields -- have had relatively short-term side effects rather than the Earth-shattering, decades-long damage predicted at the time. Back in 1993 we ran an article which talked about the extensive damage caused by attempting to scour beaches clean following the Exxon Valdez spill. As with that one, our own small encounter here suggests that sometimes we are better off leaving things alone.

Perhaps the need to respond -- or to be seen to respond -- drives us. Or possibly it's a reflection of our guilt at our ability to disrupt the natural world, or a product of our wish to be considered important in the Grand Scheme of Things. Whatever is the driving force, the tendency to overstate the problem does not serve us well.

Vicki Hyde is the editor of New Zealand Science Monthly.