Feature

Brain Drain

New Zealand is facing a critical shortage of scientists, with many heading overseas and few coming through the ranks to replace them.

By Vicki Hyde, NZSM

There has been a great deal of discussion concerning the need for New Zealand to become more innovative and more competitive internationally. Few would contest that this requires a populace with a reasonable degree of technical and scientific literacy.

That literacy is under threat, however, with many scientists uncertain of their future, others heading overseas, and only a trickle of students taking science subjects at tertiary level. In only a few years, the lack of trained scientists and engineers is likely to reach crisis proportions.

The problem of the decreasing level of skills in society, and its potential impact on New Zealand's development in the next twenty years, was a common theme at the recent Sci-Tech 2000 conference.

Science policy managers are hoping that the breakup of DSIR divisions into Crown Research Institutes and the introduction of contestable funding will provide a "leaner, meaner" science establishment. At present, it is the meaner side that seems to be making the biggest impact, resulting in a science community that is increasingly worried about the future.

Joyless Situation

Dr Derek Milne, director of DSIR Land Resources, sees the current uncertain situation as a significant factor in the depressed New Zealand science community. Restructuring and funding difficulties have led to a situation which is thoroughly unsatisfactory and totally unmanageable, he maintains. It has made the last two years "most joyless".

Milne's colleague, Bevan Cornwall of DSIR Industrial Development, warns that the situation is near critical.

"A significant portion of our scientific capability lies within our public sector science organisations, and they are currently in a state of considerable uncertainty. Unless some problems are solved fairly quickly, we are likely to see a number of our best people head for greener pastures," he says.

Denis Marshall, the Minister of Science (DSIR), gained an unintentional laugh at a conference function when he mentioned meeting DSIR-trained people all over the world. There were some muttered comments that that was hardly surprising. A background paper examining the position of public sector science suggests that significant losses have already occurred.

"There is some difficulty retaining highly skilled, experienced and innovative research scientists in certain areas, or replacing them with recruits of a similar calibre or expertise," it notes.

Significant Losses

Government science departments have suffered an 8% net loss of scientific and technical staff over the last four years. Given the small size of the New Zealand scientific community, the loss of even one expert can mean the demise of that field of study. The report notes major staff losses in a variety of disciplines, including ecology, chemical engineering, marine biology, forensics and public health.

Milne has not been surprised to see key people leave for overseas, where they are able to gain better support and a better future. In the US, many universities command greater resources for research than does our entire country, Milne maintains. Funding, equipment provisions and good working conditions serve to lure our scientists overseas and, once there, they rarely return.

Professor Barry Scott of Massey University's Molecular Genetics Department has noticed his students discounting DSIR as a career option because of the restructuring problems. He has also seen more students leaving at an earlier stage, taking overseas doctoral scholarships. Like their older counterparts, they are a highly mobile group.

"Scientists, at the end of the day, are in an international market and, if this market is no good, they'll go and they'll go fast," says Milne.

Pastures Greener Overseas

The background paper backs that up, noting critical shortages in some areas. The lure of better pay overseas has proved strong, with a PhD scientist earning at least $12,000 more working for the DSIR's Australian counterpart, the CSIRO. A top flight bench scientist could earn almost $30,000 more as a CSIRO employee.

Even within the country, there is a marked disparity between starting salaries for science graduates and those for more commercially oriented disciplines, the paper notes.

Emeritus Professor James Duncan, chairman of the New Zealand Futures Trust, sees a need for greater recognition of the important role scientists and engineers can play in New Zealand's future.

"Unless we are lucky enough to attract expatriate New Zealanders back at local salary levels for sentimental reasons, then either we attract experts to New Zealanders at the going rate for the world, or we rely on overseas interests to provide them for us, or we accept that we cannot have them," he says.

Duncan notes that this situation is similar to that experienced in past years in management, when top-grade managers were paid relatively little compared to their worth overseas. This situation has now changed, and Duncan believes keeping or attracting technological excellence requires a similar change.

"There have certainly been more financially attractive options open to the brightest university graduates than a scientific research position," the science paper comments drily.

Science Graduates Drop

The financial obligations associated with gaining a university degree have also seen science students disadvantaged, as the changes in university fee structures have had a major impact on science and engineering faculties. Students in these faculties make up the bulk of post-graduates, as professional qualifications are of greater importance in their career than in commerce or arts related occupations.

Increases in the fees, particularly for overseas students, have meant that some university departments have been absolutely decimated, according to one dean of science. In some faculties, such as engineering, overseas students have traditionally made up a large proportion of student numbers. With fees rising over the last three years from around $600 to as much as $24,000, losses of up to 90% of Masters and doctoral students have occurred.

The loss of post-graduate students has been matched by drops in student numbers at Bachelor's level. Engineering, agriculture and forestry have all seen decreases in student numbers. While engineering graduates declined by 11% between 1980 and 1989, the number of commerce graduates rose by 131%.

Dr Ian Shearer, dean of science and engineering at the Auckland Institute of Technology, is concerned about the small number of science and engineering graduates.

"In 1989, we graduated over 3,000 humanities students, 2,800 commerce students and only 250 engineering students," he says. Shearer contrasts this with Singapore, where 45% of the student population studies engineering, compared to less than 10% for New Zealand.

Human Resources Ignored

Shearer sees the contrast as reflecting a lack of commitment in developing the country's human resources. Singapore has concentrated on this in the last 15 years, he says, with 20% of the government's annual expenditure on education and 28,000 out of 30,000 new entrants to the workforce having some form of formal qualification. That opinion is backed up by the Porter report.

"New Zealand faces fundamental human-resource challenges. We have not invested aggressively in creating the pools of human-resource skills needed to be internationally competitive," the report says.

Shearer is concerned that attempts to utilise those resources will be thwarted by a lack of funding, with treasury officials unwilling to expand the budget for education and training. He, like many others attending the Sci-Tech conference, applauded the ideas of making science and maths compulsory and of introducing technology as a subject, but warned that such moves needed financial backing.

"If it is necessary in the interim to offer additional financial inducements to retain science, technology and mathematics teachers in our secondary schools, then the funds must be made available," Shearer avers.

Fewer Teachers, Students

Getting those teachers there in the first place may prove a more difficult thing than retaining them. Dr Neil Waters, vice chancellor of Massey University, has been worried by the low number of qualified science teachers available.

"In 1986, for every 100 graduates from Wellington Teachers' College, five were in maths and one in science," he says. The situation in specialised subjects is even worse. Only around 5% of New Zealand physics teachers are actually qualified in that subject.

Even if sufficient enthusiastic, qualified teachers become available, the country still faces a drop in the number of students available. Declining birth rates suggest a 16% drop in the number of 20 to 24 year olds between 1991 and 2006.

This will coincide with the peak retirement years for scientists currently employed, the bulk of whom are now in the 35-49 age bracket. While the projections show the number of younger people climbing by 2016, the population structure will mean intense competition from all sectors of society for replacements for the aging workforce.

"If science and technology are to compete with computing and accounting for the limited pool of quantitatively competent and confident students, careers for scientists and technicians need to be more clearly promoted, and backed up by improved and more attractive career paths within New Zealand," the science paper says. "This problem needs to be addressed now."

The situation calls for a greater awareness at a national level, and identification of strategic goals and initiatives. The call for compulsory maths and science subjects at school is lauded amongst the science community. There remain the questions, however, of where the teachers of these subjects are going to come from and what is going to happen to those trained students once they arrive on the scene. It would be ironic, and pointless, to spend a great deal of time and money educating new scientists only to see them seek work elsewhere.

Vicki Hyde is the editor of New Zealand Science Monthly.