Retorts

Rising Waters

At the risk of falling into the trap of discussing the results of global warming, may I list a fourth process that would contribute to changing sea levels, in the event that global temperatures rose ["Are the Waters Rising?", Feb]. The research by Miller et al (Nature 355 244 1992) indicates that any increase in temperature would increase air humidity, and that more snow would fall on polar regions than ice would melt.

While we waste our energy worrying about the projected consequences of an increase in global temperatures (about sea-level rise, about increase in plague and pestilence, and about political machinery for dealing with the higher temperature) we are ignoring the essential issue -- global temperatures are not rising.

The new technology of the satellites provides an unassailably accurate method of measuring global temperature change, and this has shown that there has been no increase over the last seventeen years. The 30-year period prior to 1978 is agreed by all to be one of stable temperature thus for about 50 years, despite considerable increase in CO₂ levels, there has been no increase in the global temperature.

The 1995/1996 IPCC Reports reduce IPCC's claims for temperature increase per decade to about one-third of the 1992 predictions, but obviously, this hushed-up admission still does not go far enough. Remember, it was the 1992 predictions that prompted various countries to sign the Climate Treaty in 1992.

Scientists who are proud of their calling and alarmed at the profession's loss of credibility -- the result of several environmental scares -- should spend some time studying the greenhouse popular vision.

The key elements of such an enquiry and a list of appropriate scientific references could be made available to anyone genuinely interested -- write to Box 2359, Wellington.

Peter A. Toynbee, Wellington